Labour shortfalls and inflation add more pressure ahead of pending rates rise

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce a 50 basis-point hike on Tuesday afternoon in a bid to curb surging inflation which is running more than double the speed of its target range.

The steepest set of rate hikes since the 1990s has brought increases in payments of more than $700 per month compared to May (on mortgages $500,000 and higher) and has coincided with further revelations that current economic pressures could induce severe worker shortages in critical industries such as aged care.

The National Skills Commission on Monday released a study into workplace shortfalls within aged care and found existing labour shortages across the economy would further exacerbate the sector's ability to attract and retain adequate workers.

Labour shortages have been flagged as another obstacle for the Australian economy alongside inflation, which has elevated cost pressures and pushed up prices.

The RBA has previously flagged it will continue to lift rates while inflation runs above its target range of 2 to 3 per cent.

Calculations from RateCity show a mortgage holder owing $500,000 would need to cough up an extra $148 from the expected double hike on Tuesday.

Since rates started going up in May, that translates to an additional $760 a month in interest payments.

For a $750,000 home loan, monthly repayments are expected to jump up on average an extra $1140 compared to May.

"If the RBA pulls the trigger on yet another double hike, this would see the cash rate rise to its highest level in nine-and-a-half years, while the average owner-occupier rate could soar to over 5.5 per cent," RateCity research director Sally Tindall said.

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"The average borrower may soon be paying an extra $760 a month in interest to their bank, at the same time their petrol and grocery bills continue to rise."

Rates have been rising primarily due to surging inflation arising from global supply constraints caused by the pandemic and commodity shocks from the war in Ukraine.

The pandemic has also impacted domestic labour supplies due to normal migration patterns being uprooted as a result of international border closures.

The study released on Monday showed the aged care sector by the end of the decade would likely be approximately 100,000 workers short. And by the middle of the century, that number was expected to double.

It pointed out that modelling conducted by Deloitte Access Economics did not take into account more recent changes in the labour market which has brought the unemployment rate down to 3.5 per cent for the month of August.

The modelling was based on data available from the March quarter of 2021.

"The current macro-economic backdrop of a much tighter than expected labour market means that the forecast gaps would be both larger than anticipated; and would emerge even more quickly than noted in the study," the report said.

"The factors discussed above make it likely that the workforce gaps (demand exceeding supply) that the study anticipated emerging 'in the short-term' in fact now exist."

Skills and Training Minister Brendan O'Connor blamed the shortfalls on the previous government, claiming they locked the report away from the public.

"We face an even more challenging economic environment now compared to when this study was completed almost a year ago," he said.

"The government is committed to working to improve attraction, retention and the sustainability of the care workforce to deliver reform the sector so desperately needs."

Labor during the election pledged that every aged care facility would have an on-site registered nurse 24/7 - a move the industry said was unfeasible due to supply constraints of skilled workers.

At the government's Jobs and Skills Summit in September, Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neill revealed the skills migration cap for the current financial year would be bumped up from 160,000 to 195,000 spots.

A number of unions, industry and employer groups had been calling for a temporary lift to ease supply shortages holding back businesses.