Reserve Bank predicted to hike despite signs price pressures easing

As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board prepares for its next rate-fixing meeting on February 7, consumer price index (CPI) figures for December due out on Wednesday are expected to give it an important update on the momentum of prices heading into the new year.

Gains in the cost of food, fuel and housing construction, which helped drive the annual inflation rate up to 7.3 per cent in the September quarter, have slowed in recent months, prompting speculation that price growth may be about to turn down, if it has not already.

Asked if the inflation "crisis" has passed, Mr Albanese said, "it's too early to say that".

"We certainly hope it's peaked. It's expected that it would peak around about this time or in the first quarter of this year and then start to head back down and we certainly hope that that's the case," he said.

The RBA has forecast headline inflation, which includes volatile items like fuel and food, to have peaked at around 8 per cent late last year before starting to edge lower early this year.

But other economists think the slowdown in price pressures in Australia and globally is such that it will not reach that high.

READ MORE:

National Australia Bank economists tip figures due out on Wednesday will show the CPI rose 1.6 per cent in the three months to December to be up 7.5 per cent from a year earlier while ANZ economists predict the annual rate will reach 7.7 per cent - the highest rate in more than three decades though still short of Reserve Bank expectations.

But even if inflation does not rise as far as has been feared, ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the central bank would need to continue raising interest rates this year because price growth remains well in excess of the RBA's 2 to 3 per cent target band.

Ms Birch said other measures of inflation, including the trimmed mean (which excludes volatile components), and non-tradables and services inflation were rising at their fastest rates since the mid-1990s and had "a lot of momentum".

She said the Reserve Bank was likely to hike its cash rate next month by 0.25 of a percentage point to 3.35 per cent and would eventually push it to 3.85 per cent before pausing.

National Australia Bank economist Taylor Nugent agrees strong demand will hold services inflation "uncomfortably high" and predicts consecutive interest rate increases in the next two months.

The prospects of more monetary policy pain will dismay households already feeling the strain of a 3 percentage point increase in rates in the past eight months, with mortgage repayments already on track to reach a record proportion of household disposable income.

Deloitte Access Economics has warned further rate hikes could tip the economy into recession.

Mr Albanese refused to be drawn on the prospects of a contraction, instead lauding the economy's "very strong fundamentals".

"We will continue to monitor the economy, which is very volatile globally. And we're exposed to a lot of those global issues, but the fundamentals here in Australia are still very strong," he said.

While National Australia Bank economists expect real growth to slow sharply this year, averaging just 1.2 per cent from 3.5 per cent in 2022, they are not forecasting a recession.

Ms Birch said although activity in some quarters this year may be flat, overall growth "will remain positive".