Low rainfall averages and more dry days in store for eastern NSW

Many have resorted to turning off their heaters during the day and feeling drawn to enjoying the outdoors under the illusion that spring came early.

However with the monthly statistics from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) coming in, the sunny weather is not what it seems, with many parts of Australia suffering from a very dry July.

BOM statistics found that rainfall for July was below average for southern two thirds of Western Australia, most of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern Tasmania.

Bega showed a drop in median rainfall records for the month of July, which in comparison to Sydney showed a stark difference.

For a three month period starting May 2023, areas of severe rainfall deficiency (totals in the lowest 5% of observations since 1900) have emerged across much of the south-west and the far south-east of Western Australia and eastern New South Wales.

While the results demonstrate worrying indications of drought, BOM's long-range forecast released on August 3, predicts a drier than median August to October for large areas of Australia.

For August to October, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.

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The State of the Climate 2022 report, indicates there's been a shift towards drier conditions across the south-west and south-east Australia, especially for the cooler months of the year from April to October.

The report found this was due to a combination of natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large-scale circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall it showed that since the 1990s, in the absence of strong 'wet' drivers, the cool season's rainfall in southern Australia has generally been lower than average.

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