Regions fare better but nation faces 'baby recession'

Analysis from KPMG Australia shows Australia had the lowest number of births since 2006 with 289,100 in 2023 - a 4.6 per cent year-on-year decline.

The overall national fertility rate has declined from two babies per woman in 2008 to 1.6 in 2023.

The drop can be attributed to ongoing cost of living pressures according to KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley who said weak economic growth often leads to reduced birth rates.

Mr Rawnsley said during pandemic lockdowns people who had held off having children decided to start families due to "record-low unemployment rate and the stimulus money".

"The current rise in living expenses applying pressure on household finances, many Australians have decided to delay starting or expanding their families."

He said this combination explains the spike and subsequent sharp decline in birth rates over the past four years.

Greater Sydney experienced the largest drop falling 8.6 per cent from 66,570 in 2019 to 60,860 in 2023.

In Melbourne, the birth rate dropped 7.3 per cent and Brisbane experienced a drop of 4.3 per cent.

Most regional areas fared better with smaller declines compared to the cities.

Regional NSW declined 0.3 per cent, Regional Victoria declined 0.4 per cent and Regional Queensland declined 2.9 per cent.

Tasmania and ACT were the only areas to experience an increase with 2.1 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.

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However, some areas of the ACT have the lowest fertility rates in the nation, with the areas of Kenny and Civic sitting below the rate of inner suburbs of other capitals.

Regional NSW led the top locations, with Gilgandra north of Dubbo having the highest fertility rate of 3.38, almost 0.5 higher than the next.

Regional hubs like Wollongong had a similar number of births in 2023 compared to 2019, which Mr Rawnsley said indicated an end to the regional boom of young Aussies making sea and tree changes.

"Births across most regions have returned to pre-pandemic levels as the baby boom driven by younger Australians shifting to the regions ran out of steam."