Dutton short on female support

The ACM network's latest survey of voter sentiment ahead of the May 3 poll shows 24 per cent of women say the Coalition leader is their preferred PM compared to 43 per cent who prefer Anthony Albanese.

Men were more likely than women to back the Liberal leader, with 33 per cent of male survey respondents preferring Mr Dutton to Mr Albanese (37 per cent).

Support for Mr Albanese was strongest among Gen Z voters, with 52 per cent of voters born after 1995 backing him as PM, and only 16 per cent preferring Mr Dutton.

The research, conducted from April 4 to 14 as the leaders began crisscrossing the country in campaign mode, is based on more than 2500 online responses from voters in 117 electorates, including readers of ACM mastheads.

Overall it shows 39 per cent of voters who completed the survey picked Mr Albanese as their preferred prime minister over Mr Dutton (28 per cent).

The Liberal leader's approval has slipped since February research by ACM, publisher of this masthead, showed a closer race before the election was called, with Mr Dutton preferred by 35 per cent of voters compared to 38 per cent for Mr Albanese.

Two months later, and with early voting set to open on April 22, the contest remains closer in regional Australia, where 32 per cent prefer Mr Dutton to Mr Albanese's 35 per cent.

Among voters in metropolitan seats, 54 per cent prefer Mr Albanese as PM to Mr Dutton (17 per cent).

The Opposition leader was overwhelmingly preferred by voters who own or manage a farm (59 per cent to Mr Albanese's) or identify as being part of the agricultural community (41 per cent for Mr Dutton vs Mr Albanese) and by voters in his home state of Queensland (45 per cent, versus 25 per cent for Mr Albanese).

In the two most populous states, both with incumbent Labor state governments, 35 per cent of Victorian voters prefer Mr Dutton over Mr Albanese (30 per cent). But Mr Albanese is preferred by more NSW voters (41 per cent) to Mr Dutton (29 per cent).

The percentage of all voters who answered "I wish there was another option" has grown from 27 per cent in the February survey to 32 per cent after the first few weeks of campaigning, suggesting Mr Dutton has so far failed to convince uncertain voters.

The generation with the highest percentage of voters unimpressed with either option: Millennials (41 per cent).

Millennial voters, born between 1980 and 1994, will represent a dominant force at polling booths in 2025, overtaking Baby Boomers [as the largest generational cohort] in every state and territory.

The major party leaders have ramped up their attempts to reach them using social media, with Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese both posting daily on TikTok and Instagram on issues ranging from housing policies to national security. Measures to address the cost of living have been prominent themes for both leaders on social media.

Mr Dutton's son Harry also joined the Liberal campaign briefly last week as his father sought to appeal to younger voters with measures to assist first-home buyers.

But according to ACM's research, Gen Z respondents and Millennials prefer Mr Albanese as PM (42 per cent) to Mr Dutton (18 per cent).

Gen X readers, born between 1965 and 1980, were divided over who they wanted to lead the country: 31 per cent prefer Mr Albanese, 30 per cent prefer Mr Dutton and 39 per cent say they wish there was another option.

Both leaders have been campaigning strongly in recent days on housing and cost-of-living relief, with the Coalition announcing $20 billion to fund infrastructure, childcare and health services in rural and remote areas.

University of NSW gender equality expert Dr Sue Williamson said the survey results highlighted a broader trend of women voters drifting away from the Coalition.

Mr Dutton's opposition to federal public servants working from home "would have been very concerning to many people, not just women, but families, that it could also flow on to other sectors," Dr Williamson said.

"We've been seeing this for the past few years; if we go back to when Tony Abbott made a comment about housewives doing their ironing, that really put women offside, and then there was Scott Morrison, who made a series of gaffes when it came to gender issues."

Mr Dutton recently walked back his pledge to force public servants back into the office full-time after experts warned it could negatively affect women and families.

Dr Williamson said despite the backflip the message might have been enough to scare off female voters who benefit from flexible working arrangements.

The latest ACM survey shows 28 per cent of voters are planning to put the ALP as their first preference on May 3, largely unchanged from the pre-campaign survey.

Support for the Liberals has slipped to 22 per cent, down from 29 per cent in February.

Signalling a decline in support for the major parties, 18 per cent of overall respondents said they planned to give their preference vote to a local independent candidate.

Preference for local independents was stronger among metropolitan voters (20 per cent), who were also more likely than regional voters to support The Greens (10 per cent).

Among regional voters, the ALP (24 per cent) and Liberals (24 per cent) were evenly matched ahead of local independent candidates (17 per cent), The Nationals (12 per cent) and The Greens (6 per cent).