Oh Canada, your election result speaks volumes

Well, that didn't take long. Only three hours between polls closing and the election being called for the Liberals. Enough seats won to prevent any other party forming government, thanks in part to the collapse in support for minor parties, thanks also to Donald Trump. But it's still too early to know if the Liberals can form a majority government.

No, you haven't fallen through a time tunnel and woken up on Sunday. We're talking about that other election, the Canadian one, which has seen a deeply unpopular progressive government until only a few months ago hold onto power, defying all early predictions of its impending doom.

Some might be tempted to draw parallels between Canada's contest and our own. Indeed, there are some similarities. There is a housing crisis, a cost-of-living crisis and resentment over immigration. But the Liberal government has been in power for a decade, whereas our Labor government has just seen out its first three-year term. Incumbency helps after one term. After three, it becomes a curse.

There's also Donald Trump, although for Canada, he's immediately downstairs, banging on the ceiling like a crack-addled neighbour, intent on muscling his way into their apartment. Tariffs, a desire to make Canada the 51^st state of the US, belittling of the former PM Justin Trudeau as the Canadian "governor" all helped turn around the fortunes of the beleaguered Liberals.

Trudeau's successor Mark Carney did something neither of our leaders have done quite as emphatically. He stood up to Trump forcefully and to great effect. He stared down the bully. To be fair, Carney had more at stake than Albanese and Dutton: an economy intertwined with the US and a common border. We, at least, have the vast Pacific Ocean between us and the US.

The Canadian result deserves the attention of democratic leaders everywhere, including here in Australia. Trump hasn't intruded on our election directly as he has on Canada's but he has cast a shadow over it, as Peter Dutton has learnt to his cost.

Every Trump-tinged utterance is pursued relentlessly. Three days after his ill-considered "hate media" jibe, Dutton was still facing questions about it yesterday, questions which derailed his talking points about his promised fuel excise cut and tax rebate.

Albanese congratulated Mark Carney on his election victory but stopped short of saying it was a good sign for his own electoral prospects. Dutton wouldn't speculate on whether the Canadian result held any lessons for him. But those around the Opposition Leader would more than likely have taken note of the rejection of the populist Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre with a sense of foreboding.

Like Dutton, Poilievre was mocked continually for his Trump-like rhetoric which in some instances was word for word. He tried desperately to distance himself from, well, himself and Trump but it was too little, too late. Late yesterday, Poilievre was in an intense battle to retain his own seat.

Canada's decision won't directly affect the way we vote on Saturday but it hints at an underlying sentiment sweeping the democratic world: that the lure of the strong man might be fading.

HAVE YOUR SAY: Is the Canadian result a bad sign for Peter Dutton? Is the appeal of the strong man waning across liberal democracies? Does Labor's turnaround in the polls echo what's happened in Canada? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

- The Opposition Leader insists there's still a pathway to victory but has been criticised for stoking culture wars as he fights for conservative voter preferences. Public polling has tracked away from the Coalition over the course of the campaign and Peter Dutton has little time to turn it around before election day on Saturday.

- The people who will decide the fate of alleged poisonous mushroom cook Erin Patterson have been chosen for her trial. Patterson, 50, has pleaded not guilty to three charges of murder and one of attempted murder, and elected for her Supreme Court trial to be held in the town of Morwell, about 150km southeast of Melbourne.

- Labor is likely to win the federal election and much-courted seats in the nation's west probably won't affect that outcome, a former longstanding Liberal premier says. Former West Australian party leader Colin Barnett said federal hopeful Peter Dutton had worked hard but it had been a lacklustre campaign.

THEY SAID IT: "Beating up on the so-called elite media has a nice populist ring to it." - Bill Keller, former New York Times columnist

YOU SAID IT: Peter Dutton sustains another self-inflicted wound by blaming what he called the "hate media" for his campaign's poor showing.

"So Dutton mustn't watch Bolt, Murray, Credlin and co," writes Bruce. "Hate is the default setting on Fox News. Bookie update: Labor now $1.16; can't recall Winx being that short! Unfortunately, a Labor majority is now just shorter than a minority. If I was a betting man, I would be on a minority. The independents are being underestimated again."

Christine writes: "Thank you for your article. As always a great read. As I watched a few minutes of Peter Dutton losing his cool at a press conference I only could hope his dog, if he has one, would be safe! His temper was bubbling up to boiling point and I'm sure someone suffered following that question time. I'd like to see a female leader of the Liberal Party and Jim Chalmers as leader of Labor."

"Great to see you back, dear Echidna John, albeit a tad early," writes Daniel J. "You haven't missed much. Dutton's still has the personality of a bollard in a suit. He's now throwing out sweeteners to the lazy undecided voters in his last desperate attempt to steal their first preference. And Albo's still spruiking half baked policy turds, but, try as he might, he just can't seem to polish them enough. Dutton's failing to conceal his Trumpian bent. Blaming the media is straight out of the fascist playbook. The larger number of early voters is comforting, though. It means more voters watch the actions of politicians and parties during parliamentary debates and have made their voting choices well ahead of the policy sell-off during the nauseous campaign. Either that or they're so disinterested that they can't wait for it all to end. For our democracy's sake, I hope it's the first reason."

Ian writes: "Peter Dutton's extraordinary claim that the national broadcaster is hate media was not desperation, it was thin-skinned weakness. He was no doubt rattled by the Four Corners investigation into his finances and failure to correctly declare his financial interests, so in response he went into a sulk. On the rare occasion when he goes on 7.30 he doesn't seem to understand the questioning as a way for him to clarify his position and policies. He takes any contest of ideas as a personal attack and that is his weakness."

"Immaturity, narcissism, inability to accept responsibility - all starting points for blaming others for anything," writes Sue. "Why not add desperation as a reason for blaming the media for your poor performance? I have this image of a pint-sized, bald-headed, pigeon-toed and knock-kneed, thumb-sucking Dutton in my head now, saying 'It's their fault!' If you are going to play in the big games, you need to grow up and accepting responsibility is part of that. The only 'hate media' that is possibly around is going to be on social media with existing extremist groups - and probably closed access. Try treating the people of Australia with some respect."

Murray writes: "I have to be honest, with five days till polling day, it's five days too long. Unlike the US election, where I was buzzing with excitement, the prospect of seeing Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton et al eating their hats was exhilarating! But here? Mr Albanese, whose campaign slogan has been 'Liar liar pants on fire' and Mr Dutton determinedly wrestling defeat from the very jaws of victory. It's been nauseating. The heavy early polling indicates to me that there might not be a close election, a minority government etc. I get the feeling that it might be a surprise for many. The media kept saying that Kamala was going to win. They were wrong on an epic scale. They keep saying Dutton is going to fail. We shall see. We shall see."

"Albo is likeable and I believe intrinsically and sincerely honest, Peter Dutton is very obviously not a leader (too many own goals), but what a crying shame Bill Shorten lost the 2019 election," writes Old Donald. "Against Chris Pyne on ABC 7.30 each week he has demonstrated his potentially natural, quick and purposeful leadership qualities so clearly. Look how deftly he handles Sarah and Christopher."

Mick writes: "If as predicted the Liberal Party half of the Coalition is to suffer a wipe-out then the definition of 'major parties' may have to change. The National Party with David Littleproud will become the senior player in a dwindling Coalition as the Liberal brand becomes more toxic. Albo will probably last the next three years but don't be surprised if Clare O'Neil makes a strong bid in time for the 2028 elections."

"The Greek philosopher Plutarch recorded the Armenian King Tigranes killing a messenger who brought bad news of the coming of roman General Lucullus," writes Daniel C. "Chinese emperors were so notorious for beheading bearers of bad news that no one dared tell them that rebellious forces were overrunning the empire until they were at the gates of the Forbidden City. While Dutton as Opposition Leader is not able to kill the messenger just yet, if he becomes prime minister there will be heads rolling in the ABC as its budget is slashed. Fortunately, like Tigranes, Dutton has failed to address the reason for the bad news - his own ideological mindset and the opposition's insensitive and ineffective policies and campaigning."

Deb writes: "I think Sky News comes pretty close to hate media. Occasionally, when I'm channel surfing, I'll watch for a couple of minutes, and whoever is on is usually bashing the left."

"Could it possibly be that Dutton in his amped up state of mind is blaming the media for election bias, based on Sky News's blinkered political coverage?" asks Laurence. "The malignant narcissist Trump has taken this blame the media game a long way further than what has been seen in Australia to date. He has attributed his historically low approval ratings (the lowest ratings for any US President since World War II) during his first 100 days of his current term in office, to fake polls and biased media coverage and demanded investigations into their polling practices."

Catherine writes: "I am hoping desperately that Peter Dutton is not the PM after Saturday. I can't think of a worse pick. He has no warmth, no grace, no intellectual curiosity, no compassion and no willingness to do the hard yards in policy terms. If they lose, he should go. But who would take his place as leader? Angus Taylor? Heavens no. He would be even worse than Dutton at communicating with ordinary Australians. The only one who comes to mind is Julian Leeser - he does at least seem to have some principles. If Albanese remains in the top job after Saturday, it should only be for a few months and then he should graciously step aside to give someone else a chance to put their mark on the position before the next election. Jim Chalmers? He seems competent and is a good communicator, though I think I would go for either Clare O'Neill or Jason Clare."

"One could regard The Guardian as leftish, but John Hanscombe is spot on about the ABC being scrupulously even-handed, even to the point of allowing anti-science and disinformation to go unchallenged," writes Stafford. "But when one considers the preponderance of right wing to right-wing crazy in the Murdoch media, it makes everyone else appear left wing. But hate? Once Dutton cosied up to Hanson, he revealed that his hate meter is in need of urgent and radical adjustment."

Jennifer writes: "Dutton is a fool! He has offended and alienated so many groups of people in Australia in a popularity contest. To attack the ABC when so many Australians rely on it for news and emergency information is just unbelievable. No doubt he'll blame hate groups when he loses, even though he's created hate and division with his attacks on people to whom he does not connect. He'll also blame Labor. Delusional because he's not stayed in touch with the broad spread of today's Australians, just his niche hate groups. New leaders are needed for both parties, those who are more in touch with better-informed young Aussies."

"We need, at this time, someone safe, genuine and sure of him/herself," writes Rae. "Unfortunately, Mr Dutton attempts to cloak himself in whatever behaviour and policy seems to be popular on the day! Just amazing. Did not expect this from a pollie who has been around a while. Not as smart as I thought he was. We need someone of substance not teflon."