Knives sharpened as Dutton's culture-war detours drove Coalition off a cliff

Failure would probably mean the end of a long political career - 29 years for the PM and 23 for the Liberal leader.

But only one man could look in the mirror and genuinely say to himself, "I ran a good campaign and did all I could to maximise our vote".

A welter of late opinion surveys and some less scientific exit polls suggested it was Dutton who faced the chill winds of rejection from voters. The ire of colleagues would surely follow.

The Queenslander had led insisted on a suburban strategy after getting a dream inside run to the leadership after Scott Morrison's disastrous 2022 ouster.

Morrison's defeat was so comprehensive it saw six blue-ribbon Liberal strongholds fall to "teal" community independents among 19 seats to go overall.

Dutton placed little importance on regaining them, regarding the affluent inner-urban seats as best left to the teal, Labor and the greens to fight out.

One of those losses removed then treasurer Josh Frydenberg from the parliament - a more moderate figure who would have given Dutton a run for his money in any leadership contest.

Liberals were already grumbling as the election neared about Dutton's bungled campaign which was widely panned as too little too late, and tactically amateurish.

One frustrated party loyalist called the Dutton campaign "embarrassing" and described a "betrayal of thousands of hardworking Liberals" who were left on doorsteps and polling places defending daily backflips.

Attention was already turning to what to do now amid a widely expected challenge by the NSW-based MP and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor who has long been touted as a future Liberal leader.

Taylor is well-regarded but also has plenty of detractors, too.

Also mentioned has been a possible leadership ticket featuring the WA-based defence spokesperson Andrew Hastie and current deputy Sussan Ley - a pairing that might attract support for its east-west, right-moderate, and male-female characteristics.

Another expected contender is the regional Victorian MP, Dan Tehan who first has to survive a spirited challenge by an independent in his electorate of Wannon.

Knives were being sharpened for Dutton even before the final result was knowable after he left key policy decisions too late to make a difference and made several tactical blunders.

These included opposing Labor's tax cuts, backing (before dropping) a ban on working from home, and committing to spend more if elected, thus deepening the budget deficit.

Privately, Liberals also criticised Dutton's culture war forays on the school curriculum and welcome-to-country ceremonies instead of sticking rigidly to cost-of-living pressures.