Study reveals why Peter Dutton lost the last election

The Australian Election Study shows voters preferred Labor over the coalition when it came to managing the economy and taxation, the first time the roles had been reversed since the researchers began collecting data in 1987.

Voters signalled a clear preference for Anthony Albanese as prime minister, with Peter Dutton's lack of popularity breaking several records in the study, which is run by the Australian National University and Griffith University.

"Dutton was the least popular major party leader the AES has ever polled," study co-author Ian McAllister said.

"According to voters, the leadership qualities he most lacked were 'inspiration', closely followed by 'compassion'."

On this study's count, the Liberals suffered their lowest-ever levels of popularity among voters in 2025, dropping to an average score of 4.2 on a zero to 10 scale.

Voters also gave Labor a four-percentage-point lead over the coalition on economic management, and an eight-point lead on taxation.

Opposition frontbencher Andrew Bragg conceded Australians no longer think about the Liberals the way they did in the past, when the party had a double digit lead over Labor on economic management.

"There's no doubt that we have done damage to our brand over the past few years," he told reporters in Canberra on Wednesday.

The dire results come as the coalition's primary vote also failed to lift beyond record-low levels in the latest Newspoll data, which also revealed Andrew Hastie was the most popular potential opposition leader if Sussan Ley were to step aside.

Labor continues to lead the two-party preferred vote by 58-42 per cent.

The study's results show voter volatility continues to rise, according to its authors, with 25 per cent of participants reporting they don't feel close to any political party.

Co-author Sarah Cameron from Griffith University said the wide gender gap that emerged over the past decade has remained.

"The coalition attracted the lowest share of votes from women on record, with nine per cent fewer women than men voting for the Coalition," Dr Cameron said.

Conversely, Labor attracts more votes from women than men.

"The gender gap in voting for Labor, at five per cent, is about half the size of the coalition's."

Labor was the preferred party on nine out of 10 policy issue areas examined, including environmental, social and economic issues.

The exception was national security where the coalition had a narrow lead over Labor.

Millennials, aged in their 30s and 40s, are not shifting to the right as they age and are rather shifting to the left, the study found.

The age group's support of the coalition has fallen from 38 per cent in 2016 to 21 per cent in 2025.

There has also been a dramatic drop in confidence in Australia's relationship with the United States, with just 55 per cent of voters saying they trust in the US to come to Australia's defence, down from 73 per cent in 2022.

Australian Associated Press