Is Toyota giving up on HiLux?

The HiLux was Australia's most popular vehicle for an incredible seven years straight, with that run ending in 2023 as the Ford Ranger climbed to the top of the table.

And this new HiLux has little chance of reclaiming that spot, with the brand forecasting around 40,000 sales of the heavily refreshed model, and predicting it will be outsold by the new RAV4 in its own family fleet.

The current-generation HiLux had already sold in excess of 45,000 units by the end of October this year, and shifted more than 55,000 units in 2024. More than 47,000 Ford Rangers had been sold by the end of October this year, and the brand recorded more than 62,000 sales last year.

While the brand is still forecasting "significant volume" the brand appears to be tempering expectations amidst a "crazy" ute market that Toyota says has peaked.

"I still think this will be a significant volume for us," says Toyota Australia's VP of Sales and Marketing, Sean Hanley.

"A significant volume - what does that look like? You know, it's in excess of 40,000 a year still. So it's still a significant volume. Now, whether it's number one, number two, number three, I don't know. The market will determine that.

"But still, 40,000-plus is a big segment for us. So when I say the ute market's peaked, what I mean is that, well, exactly that, it's peaked. But it's still a significant market, and it will be for the future."

Toyota has come under criticism on its own social media channels by fans seemingly unenthused by the amount of carryover (platform, tray, engine, transmission) that appears in the new HiLux. But Toyotas staunchly defended the vehicle at its launch, suggesting it delivers what ute buyers want.

"I'm not going home losing sleep over anything," Mr Hanley says.

"That car will go fine. I'll tell you why that car will go fine. Because it's got everything that a ute buyer wants. Firstly, it's reliable. It's got good quality. It's got a car brand behind it that's trusted. It's got a car brand behind it that can supply parts. It's got a car brand behind it with 280 dealers around the country where these people go.

"That's why."

But will that be enough to see it climb to the top of the sales charts again? Seemingly not. While Mr Hanley insists it can take down the Ranger, he also concedes it won't be the brand's best-selling vehicle.

Asked if the new HiLux is capable of outselling the Ranger, Mr Hanley replied:

"Yeah, absolutely it is. I mean, you're talking about a current generation that's knocking on the door. New generation? Yeah, I think it's capable.

"But I think that whole ute market's going to be crazy for the next couple of years. So in the end it doesn't matter what I think. It matters what customers think.

"I'm confident customers will engage with this car, and I'm confident it'll sell well."