The Eurobodalla Shire is facing the realistic prospect that all three first-grade sides will miss the 2019 Group 16 finals. So is it time to start worrying about the state of rugby league in the shire?
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It's a tough question to answer, because rugby league is a multi-layered game at the grassroots level. Most clubs run at least three teams in senior grades, and that's not even including healthy junior clubs.
However, the state of first-grade rugby league in the Eurobodalla Shire is in a dire state. Through 16 rounds, the three shire teams (Batemans Bay Tigers, Moruya Sharks, Narooma Devils) have combined for just 16 wins.
To put that number into perspective, the three worst teams in the Bega Valley Shire (Eden, Tathra, Merimbula-Pambula) have won 26 games. And that doesn't take into account the 12 wins Bega have amassed this year.
Reserve grade isn't much better. The Batemans Bay Tigers folded after just two matches, and the Narooma Devils are stuck on the bottom of the ladder with just a solitary win. To their credit, the Sharks are sitting in third on the ladder, but they're a fair ways off both Bega and Snowy River.
The Moruya Sharkettes will most likely be the only shire side in the league-tag finals this year, as Batemans Bay (four wins) and Narooma (six wins) look set to miss.
Now, it's not all doom and gloom for our sides. Although the Tigers have struggled in first grade this season, I believe captain/coach Brent Pike will be able to build a competitive side over the next couple of season.
The Devils have a lot of solid players in their group, and a bit of good luck with injuries could easily see them jump into finals contention next year.
The Sharks have had the worst injury list in the competition this year, and still find themselves in fifth position. They should be fine.
So do we worry about the state of our senior sides based on this year? We probably should.
For all the positives listed above, there's an equal chance the opposite happens. Maybe Pike struggles to get good players to come to the Bay, maybe the young players in Narooma decide to look for greener pastures, and maybe Moruya's injury curse continues next year.
But forget hypotheticals, possibly the biggest problem is the lack of numbers in the clubs.
As mentioned above, the Tigers only ran two grades this season. Last year they had all four, and two of those sides made it to at least the preliminary final.
So why the sudden drop off? The under 18s folded because they got older. Hard to play 18s when a lot of last year's players are 19 this season.
The reserve-grade situation is trickier. Based on the 2016 census, there are 2864 people in the 2536 postcode that are in the footy-playing age bracket (15-35). Now, granted, approximately 600 of these would probably be 15-17, which is too young for senior footy, so we'll say 2260 people.
1098 of those are men. Obviously not every man would be in a physical state to play footy, so let's cut that number in half. That leaves about 549 men of footy playing age that could easily pull on the boots.
So why are the numbers not there for the club? Is there a general feeling of apathy amongst our footy players? Or is it as simple as having to share players between the sports?
A rugby league club could run a full program of both first grade and reserve grade with somewhere between 34-40 players, rugby union needs a first-grade squad of approximately 25, and Aussie Rules needs somewhere in the vicinity of 50, so sharing shouldn't be an issue. (Soccer isn't included as it's played on Friday night at the senior level).
So apathy must be the answer, but why are people turning their backs on playing rugby league? It's an impossible question to answer, but recent scandals involving high-level players probably don't help. Rugby league is also an inherently dangerous game, and a lot of men probably don't want to risk injury.
Moruya doesn't have issues with numbers, but they do have some issues with an ageing first-grade side. That's a problem nobody has been able to fix.
Moruya's biggest problem is the size of its junior club. The Moruya-Tuross Sharks are the smallest junior club in the shire, and they're also fighting for numbers with the biggest soccer club in the shire.
Parents are becoming more likely to put their kids in soccer over rugby league, as it's seen as a much safer sport.
Narooma doesn't have an issue with numbers, but there is an issue with quality. Narooma don't have problems producing good players (see Chris Houston, Teig Wilton, Michael Lett etc.), but they have some issues keeping them.
Matt Parsons was the best young fullback in the group last year, but he left to play in Canberra this year. Tully Wilton is impressing as the Devils first-grade halfback this year, but he'll likely be snapped up by a bigger club next season.
And, unfortunately, there's not much Narooma can do to fix this issue. In fact, there's not much any regional club can do to fix this issue. Kids leave small towns for university or work, and they have been for the past 50 years.
But the crux of this issue is the fact the Bega Valley Shire teams are all strong this season, even though they face the same challenges as our clubs.
In fact, the valley clubs are streets ahead of ours in both the men's and women's competitions. Every club runs three grades, or in the case of Merimbula-Pambula, partner with another to do so.
So yes, it is slightly concerning that our clubs are falling behind those enemies from the south, particularly considering the population numbers are comparable (in fact, the Eurobodalla Shire is slightly higher).
But, hey, this is rugby league, so who knows what happens next year.