Forecaster says weather patterns unusual and predicts return of La Nina

It's hardly surprising we're somewhat confused about our weather given the dire warnings of another potential Black Summer and the quickly browning landscape.

El Nino, which brings heat and dry weather for South East Australia, was on its way we were told in September 2023; we would have an El Nino summer.

Since then there's been several major rain events, including one which caused serious damage in November 2023. This was followed by a Christmas light show of storms which made rivers rise quickly and run fast.

Recent events saw Canberra suffering flash floods on January 13 and intense storms between Merimbula and Eden the same day.

If you're feeling a disconnect between what you've been told and what you're experiencing, you're not alone.

But spare a thought for our farmers who rely on weather forecasts for vital crop planting plans and decisions on whether to hold, sell or buy livestock. Agricultural production and millions of dollars are at stake as the decisions are made.

Independent weather forecaster Dennis Luke said it's all very well to make bold predictions but there are a lot of variables that the ordinary layperson may not realise and El Nino can come in different shades.

"El Nino comes in up to five different levels, weak, low, moderate, strong and very strong." Mr Luke said.

"In a weak El Nino you'd be lucky to get a severe temperature on any one day. This is a low to moderate El Nino and that's why we're experiencing inconsistent temperatures.

"When we have any lower than moderate, the variables around the continent can influence it. For example I didn't expect it to be as hot continuously as it has been. Everything is inconsistent," Mr Luke said.

There's a lot that has to be taken into account in weather forecasting such as sea surface temperatures, the speed of Kelvin waves, the pulse of warm water across the Pacific which is also affected by the speed and strength of trade winds.

While Mr Luke believes there is still some heat to come in February, changes in South American waters indicate a return to La Nina, the cooler and wetter weather pattern for Australia.

And while cooler waters may be eventually heading our way, Mr Luke said there was still a lot of warm water off Queensland and NSW.

"So if you get fronts developing in Queensland and the direction takes them towards NSW, those warmer waters can increase the amount of rainfall," he said.

However the early return to La Nina is an unusual pattern.

Mr Luke said he had looked at La Nina and El Nino patterns for previous years and they showed El Nino occurring around every four years and La Nina happening every 10 years.

"Since WWII there have been four triples (triples being three consecutive years of La Nina) and since records began, a total of eight.

He said he hadn't seen this predicted pattern before, coming out of a triple La Nina, into a brief El Nino and then back into La Nina.

"It's quite an unusual circumstance".